Last week we predicted that Gravity’s Alfonso Cuarón would get the win for Best Director, so historically speaking that would mean Gravity should have a 73% chance of winning Best Picture because of how closely tied those categories are. However, we do not have to go back very far to see split category winners. Last year Ang Lee received Best Director for the visually impressive Life of Pi, while Ben Affleck’s historic thriller Argo was awarded Best Picture. This year has a very similar setup. Winning the award at the Director’s Guild of America puts Cuarón in good position for Best Director, however, his technical marvel Gravity may be edged out by Steve McQueen’s historical drama 12 Years a Slave. Last week’s BAFTA (British Oscar equivalent) win for 12 Years a Slave was a major victory for the film. But make no mistake, this is still a very close race between the two films.

Marketing departments for the rest of the field will not likely be upgrading their materials beyond “Best Picture Nominated”. While it is still a monumental honor just to be nominated, Spike Jonze and company should feel disheartened that Her is not in contention. Though they are probably just happy their futuristic love story did not fly over the heads of the Academy whose median age is 62.

Because 2013 was such solid year for film, there are plenty of titles that deserved to be nominated: Blue Is the Warmest Color, Blue Jasmine, The Place Beyond the Pines, Frances Ha, Before Midnight, and Fruitvale Station just to name a few. But my top pick for the film that did not receive a nomination that should have is Short Term 12. Destin Cretton’s film blasted on to everyone’s radar after rave reviews from critics at its SXSW premiere. It is unfortunate that the film’s marketing budget and small distribution are its biggest flaws, because the film will make you laugh, cry, and smile more than most films that actually did get nominated.

Category Predictions

Best Picture Nominees

American Hustle (review)

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club (review)

Gravity (review)

Her (review)

Nebraska (review)

Philomena (review)

12 Years a Slave (review)

The Wolf of Wall Street (review)

Previous Category Analysis

Best Shorts
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Film
Best Documentary
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Director

The 67th British Academy Film Awards was this past Sunday, February 16th. Sometimes providing a potential glimpse at what Oscar night may bring, the winners were fairly safe bets and may prove as consolation prizes if Academy members vote rogue this year. Gravity took home the most statues with 6 wins, including Best Director and the ambiguously titled Best British Film.  12 Years a Slave took home the top honor of Best Picture, a feat that may prove more difficult in the States, where it’s up against 8 other films rather than the BAFTA’s 4 others.

Chiwetel Ejiofor and Cate Blanchett took the top acting awards, but considering the BAFTA’s gave literally no love to The Dallas Buyers Club, they’ve left out a slew of serious contenders who will be putting up a fight at the Oscars this year. The Academy isn’t as likely to hand out an Oscar to a first timer, so Barkhad Abdi’s BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor may be his only win, but Jennifer Lawrence, who took home the Best Supporting Actress statue Sunday night, has as much a chance as anyone in this year’s highly competitive pool for the Oscars.

Rounding out the evening the Academy Fellowship, the highest honor given out at the BAFTA’s was awarded to Dame Helen Mirren.

Complete list of BAFTA winners:

Best Picture: 12 Years A Slave
Best British Film: Gravity
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell
Best Adapted Screenplay: Philomena, Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope
Best Foreign: The Great Beauty, Paolo Sorrentino, NicolaGiuliano, Francesca Cima
Best Documentary: The Act of Killing – Joshua Oppenheimer
Best Animation: Frozen, Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee
Best Cinematography: Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Best Editing: Rush, Dan Hanley, Mike Hill
Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn
Best Costume Design: The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin
Best Make Up and Hair: American Hustle, Evelyne Noraz, Lori McCoy-Bell
Best Sound: Gravity, Glenn Freemantle, Skip Lievsay, Christopher Benstead, Niv Adiri, Chris Munro
Best Original Music: Gravity, Steven Price
Best Special Visual Effects: Gravity – Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould,Nikki Penny
Best British Short Animation: Sleeping with the Fishes, James Walker, Sarah Woolner, Yousif Al-Khalifa
Best British Short Film: Room 8, James W. Griffiths & Sophie Venner
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer: Keiran Evans (Director/Writer), Kelly + Victor
The EE Rising Star Award (voted for by public): Will Poulter

This morning the official announcement of nominations for the 2014 Oscars came in with Gravity and American Hustle on top with an impressive total of 10 nominations each. Not far behind was 12 Years A Slave which hauled in 9 nominations. The Best Picture race will almost certainly be between American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave with Gravity almost a lock to pick up several technical achievement awards. A pleasant surprise for me was to see the Academy’s love for Spike Jonze’s Her, which nabbed 5 nominations including Best Picture, while the Coen Brothers film Inside Llewyn Davis received nominations only for Best Cinematography and Best Sound Mixing.

Other surprises were Jonah Hill getting a Best Supporting nod for The Wolf of Wall Street, Saving Mr. Banks only receiving a single nomination for Best Original Score, despite many believing it had Best Actor and even Best Picture potential (though I agree with the Academy’s decision on this one). Another surprise were Blackfish and Stories We Tell getting nudged out of the Best Documentary category, as 20 Feet From Stardom slips in. The biggest disappointment for me was seeing Blue Is the Warmest Color getting snubbed in the Best Foreign Film category.

The 86th Academy Awards will air March 2, 2014 at 7 p.m. ET on ABC.

Full List of 2014 Oscar Nominations:

Best Picture:

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director:

David O. Russell – American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity
Alexander Payne – Nebraska
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actor:

Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress:

Amy Adams – American Hustle
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actor:

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska

Best Original Screenplay:

Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack – Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze – Her
Bob Nelson – Nebraska

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke – Before Midnight
Billy Ray – Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena
John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Foreign Film:

The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
Omar

Best Cinematography:

Philippe Le Sourd – The Grandmaster
Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael – Nebraska
Roger A. Deakins – Prisoners

Best Animated Film:

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

Best Documentary:

The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

Best Film Editing:

Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten – American Hustle
Christopher Rouse – Captain Phillips
John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa – Dallas Buyers Club
Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger – Gravity
Joe Walker – 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Score:

John Williams – The Book Thief
Steven Price – Gravity
William Butler and Owen Pallett – Her
Alexandre Desplat – Philomena
Thomas Newman – Saving Mr. Banks

Best Original Song:

“Alone Yet Not Alone” – Alone Yet Not Alone
“Happy” – Despicable Me 2
“Let It Go” – Frozen
“The Moon Song” – Her
“Ordinary Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Best Production Design:

American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design:

American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

Best Sound Editing:

All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

Best Sound Mixing:

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

Best Visual Effects:

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

Best Short Film (Live Action):

Aquel No Era Yo
Avant Que De Tout Perdre
Helium
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa?
The Voorman Problem

Best Visual Short Film (Animated):

Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

Best Documentary (Short Subject):

CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Judi Dench, an actress capable of moving mountains with her onscreen power, is capable of  much more than what’s required of her in Philomena, a good film based on an astounding true story, directed by Stephen Frears (The Queen). Embodying the titular character doesn’t come close to exhausting Dench’s extensive capabilities, but instead of overpowering the film just to show off, or lazing her way through the material like she’s above it, Dench applies just the right amount of pressure, hitting that sweet, sweet spot because, well, she’s Judi Dench and brilliance is kind of her thing.

In 1950’s Ireland, a young Philomena Lee was sent to a Catholic convent to atone for the sin of getting pregnant out of wedlock. The atonement was unscrupulously extreme; her son, Anthony, then barely a toddler, was taken from her without her consent and sold to a wealthy family in America. Philomena, a devout Catholic and a (perplexingly) forgiving soul, obliged the covent’s wishes to not seek out the son they swiped. That is, until 2003 when she met journalist Martin Sixsmith (Steve Coogan.)

Martin, reeling from public humiliation (he was just fired from his job with the government), stumbles upon an opportunity to redeem himself in Philomena, an ostensibly perfect subject human interest story as she’s approaching a breaking point in her now nearly 50-year-long lament of Anthony. She agrees to let Martin document her journey to America to uncover what’s become of her son.

Coogan (who also co-wrote the film), a tested comedic performer, carefully plants moments humor throughout the mostly somber film, though he approaches the weightier dramatic moments with a measure of sensitivity and finesse that proves his range more expansive than one might expect. His blackly cynical, know-it-all take on Sixsmith plays nicely off of Dench’s endearingly gullible and simple-souled Philomena. I hesitate to call them an odd couple (though they’re different on many levels), because of how well the pairing works. Philomena’s general naiveté and disconnect with the media world Martin is so wrapped up in always pushes his buttons in the most hilarious way. Martin just can’t let go of the improbability of every hotel worker Philomena meeting being “one in a million”, as she calls them. He’s a smart-ass, and her kindness baffles him (though it’ll eventually enlighten him.)

The film’s tone is bittersweet, with Philomena’s deep-seated regret propelling the duo’s journey forward at a gentle glide. Several unexpected twists and turns keep the narrative from plateauing, and it’s riveting to watch Martin’s transformation as he observes Philomena’s kind-hearted nature and begins to recalibrate his exhaustingly pessimistic outlook on life. As he becomes personally and emotionally attached to Philomena’s search for Anthony, he finds it harder and harder to do his job and treat her as merely the subject of his story, and his feelings only become more conflicted. If it seems like I’m being evasive about the details of Martin and Philomena’s trip to America, it’s because they’re best discovered as you watch the film.

Frears exhibits little style in the way he presents the story and almost doesn’t do it justice. The imagery, camerawork, and editing feel very “bare-minimum” and don’t match Dench and Coogan’s passion. He merely presents their performances instead of elevating them. It’s an understated film, with a permeating sense of loss and regret, but it often feels too hushed and visually muted for its own good. Still, Frears’ technique is solid and causes the story no real harm, and the beautiful final message of the film rings loud and true.