If my predictions of the 2014 Film Independent Spirit Awards hold true (nobody hold their breath), 12 Years A Slave would walk away the big winner with a projected total of 5 awards. I believe the rest of the field will be much more spread out with Before Midnight, Nebraska, Upstream Color, Fruitvale Station, Blue Jasmine, and others going home with one award. After winning the Palm d’Or and taking the Cannes Film Festival by storm this year, Blue is the Warmest Color‘s momentum has started to slow down and may no longer the obvious frontrunner anymore. Though I am still picking it to win Best International Film here, it is against fierce competition.

For better or worse, I am posting my Spirit Award predictions one day ahead of the official announcement of Oscar nominees. In just 45 days the Spirit Award winners will be officially announced and will dictate whether or not I can beat my prediction accuracy from last year of 53% (7 out of 13). In addition to picking the winners for each category below, I explain the reasoning behind my picks in detail under the categories.

Watch IFC on Saturday, March 1st at 10PM ET to see how my predictions hold up.

List of 2014 Independent Spirit Award Predictions:

(My prediction for the winners are highlighted in bold red font)

Best Feature:

12 Years A Slave
All Is Lost
Frances Ha
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

Best Director:

Shane Carruth – Upstream Color
J.C. Chandor – All Is Lost
Steve McQueen – 12 Years A Slave
Jeff Nichols – Mud
Alexander Payne – Nebraska

Best First Feature:

Blue Caprice
Concussion
Fruitvale Station
Una Noche
Wadjda

Best Male Lead:

Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years A Slave
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford – All Is Lost

Best Female Lead:

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Julie Delpy – Before Midnight
Gaby Hoffmann – Crystal Fairy
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Shailene Woodley – The Spectacular Now

Best Supporting Male:

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years A Slave
Will Forte – Nebraska
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Keith Stanfield – Short Term 12

Best Supporting Female:

Melonie Diaz – Fruitvale Station
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years A Slave
Yolanda Ross – Go For Sisters
June Squibb – Nebraska

Best International Film: (Award given to the director)

A Touch of Sin
Blue is the Warmest Color
Gloria
The Great Beauty
The Hunt

Best Cinematography:

Sean Bobbitt – 12 Years a Slave
Benoit Debie – Spring Breakers
Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis
Frank G. Demarco – All Is Lost
Matthias Grunsky – Computer Chess

Best Documentary:

The Act Of Killing
After Tiller
Gideon’s Army
The Square
Twenty Feet From Stardom

John Cassavetes Award: (Given to the best feature made for under $500,000; award given to the writer, director, and producer)

Computer Chess – Andrew Bujalski
Crystal Fairy – Sebastian Silva
Museum Hours – Jem Cohen
Pit Stop – Yen Tan
This Is Martin Bonner – Chad Hartigan

Best Editing:

Shane Carruth & David Lowery – Upstream Color
Jem Cohen & Marc Vives – Museum Hours
Jennifer Lame – Frances Ha
Cindy Lee – Una Noche
Nat Sanders – Short Term 12

Best Screenplay:

Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater – Before Midnight
Nicole Holofcener – Enough Said
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – The Spectacular Now
John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave

Best First Screenplay:

Lake Bell – In A World
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Don Jon
Bob Nelson – Nebraska
Jill Soloway – Afternoon Delight
Michael Starburry – The Inevitable Defeat Of Mister & Pete

Tina Fey and Amy Poehler continued hosting duties for the second consecutive year for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s Golden Globe awards. Over the course of the award ceremony there were many big winners which include: American Hustle which won three awards (Best Motion Picture Comedy, and two acting awards), 12 Years a Slave which surprisingly only won Best Motion Picture for Drama, and Alfonso Cuaron getting Best Director for Gravity. Some surprising but pleasing winners were: Jared Leto getting Best Support Actor for his wonderful role in Dallas Buyers Club, the deserving Spike Jonze winning for Best Screenplay for Her, and Amy Adams beating out Meryl Streep for Best Actress (Comedy/Musical). Some disappointments were Bono winning Best Song, All Is Lost winning Best Original Score, and the biggest disappointment of all, Blue Is The Warmest Color losing to The Great Beauty (even though it was good) for Best Foreign Film.

List of 2014 Golden Globes award winners:

(Winners are highlighted in bold red font)

FILM

Best Motion Picture – Drama
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
American Hustle
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf Of Wall Street

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne – Nebraska
David O. Russell – American Hustle

Best Actress – Drama
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet – Labor Day

Best Actor – Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford – All Is Lost

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Amy Adams – American Hustle
Julie Delpy- Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix – Her

Best Supporting Actress In A Motion Picture
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska

Best Supporting Actor In A Motion Picture
Barkhad Abd – Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl – Rush
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Best Screenplay
Spike Jonze – Her
Bob Nelson – Nebraska
Jeff Pope, Steve Coogan – Philomena
John Ridley – 12 Years A Slave
Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell – American Hustle

Best Original Score
Alex Ebert – All Is Lost
Alex Heffes – Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom
Steven Price – Gravity
John Williams – The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer – 12 Years A Slave

Best Original Song
Chris Martin, Guy Berryman, Jonny Buckland, Will Champion – Atlas (Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez – Let It Go (Frozen)
Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen, Jr., Brian Burton – Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Ed Rush, George Cromarty, T Bone Burnett, Justin Timberlake, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Please Mr Kennedy (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Taylor Swift, Jack Antonoff – Sweeter Than Fiction – (One Chance)

Best Animated Feature Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen

Best Foreign Film
Blue is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises

TELEVISION

Best Television Series – Drama
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
House Of Cards
Masters Of Sex

Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Drama
Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black
Taylor Schilling – Orange Is The New Black
Kerry Washington – Scandal
Robin Wright – House Of Cards

Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Drama
Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad
Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan
Michael Sheen – Masters of Sex
Kevin Spacey – House of Cards
James Spader – The Blacklist

Best Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Girls
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation

Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
Zooey Deschanel – New Girl
Lena Dunham – Girls
Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep
Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation

Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
Jason Bateman – Arrested Development
Don Cheadle – House of Lies
Michael J. Fox – The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory
Andy Samberg – Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Best Mini-Series Or Motion Picture Made for Television
American Horror Story: Coven
Behind The Candelabra
Dancing on the Edge
Top of the Lake
White Queen

Best Performance by an Actress In A Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Helena Bonham Carter – Burton and Taylor
Rebecca Ferguson – White Queen
Jessica Lange – American Horror Story: Coven
Helen Mirren – Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss – Top of the Lake

Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Matt Damon – Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas – Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor – Dancing on the Edge
Idris Elba – Luther
Al Pacino – Phil Spector

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jacqueline Bisset – Dancing on the Edge
Janet McTeer – White Queen
Hayden Panettiere – Nashville
Monica Potter – Parenthood
Sofia Vergara – Modern Family

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Josh Charles – The Good Wife
Rob Lowe – Behind the Candelabra
Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad
Corey Stoll – House of Cards
Jon Voight – Ray Donovan

Any film directed by Woody Allen gets us pretty excited, especially after recently proving he still has it with his wonderful 2011 film Midnight in Paris. Cate Blanchett has already received a number of nominations (Spirit Award, Golden Globes) for her leading role, and has a great chance at an Oscar nomination when they are announced on the 16th of this month. And we approve! Back in July of this year, Bernard mentioned her significant performance in his review. To help promote Blue Jasmine arriving on Blu-ray and DVD on January 21st, we are giving away a Blu-ray copy of the film to one our readers!

How do you enter the giveaway?

Using the form directly below, you have the ability to earn 4 entries for the giveaway. The mandatory entry is for telling us what your favorite Woody Allen film is. Bonus entries for following us on Twitter, another for tweeting at us, and/or liking us on Facebook.

a Rafflecopter giveaway

Blue Jasmine trailer:

Nominations for the Film Independent Spirit Awards were announced this morning by Octavia Spencer, who was probably happy to announce that Fruitvale Station (a film she is in) picked up 3 nominations. But the film with the most nominations unsurprisingly went to Steve McQueen’s 12 Years A Slave, which picked up a total of 7 nominations; Best Feature, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, and Cinematography. The biggest shock was indie darling Greta Gerwig getting snubbed for a nomination for Best Actress in Frances Ha, a film that only picked up three noms (though one was for Best Feature).

The strongest category in my opinion goes to the Best International Film category that is comprised of; A Touch Of Sin, Blue Is The Warmest Color, Gloria, The Great Beauty, and The Hunt, all of which are amazing films. It is especially nice to see Blue Is The Warmest Color make that list as the film will not qualify for an Oscar nomination the following night because of a technicality in the rules that states a film must open in its home country on or before September 30th. Though it is likely a favorite to win here.

Also announced today was the new category of Best Editing, a welcoming addition that is surprising the awards show went so long without. We look forward to watching Patton Oswalt handling the hosting duties this year, in what should be a great show filled with a ton of indie talent. The winners will be announced at the 29th annual Film Independent Spirit Awards on March 1st and the broadcast will air at 10 p.m. ET/PT on IFC.

Read: Our 2014 Spirit Award predictions

List of 2014 Independent Spirit Award Nominations:

12 Years A Slave
All Is Lost
Frances Ha
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

Shane Carruth – Upstream Color
J.C. Chandor – All Is Lost
Steve McQueen – 12 Years A Slave
Jeff Nichols – Mud
Alexander Payne – Nebraska

Blue Caprice
Concussion
Fruitvale Station
Una Noche
Wadjda

Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years A Slave
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford – All Is Lost

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Julie Delpy – Before Midnight
Gaby Hoffmann – Crystal Fairy
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Shailene Woodley – The Spectacular Now

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years A Slave
Will Forte – Nebraska
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Keith Stanfield – Short Term 12

Melonie Diaz – Fruitvale Station
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years A Slave
Yolanda Ross – Go For Sisters
June Squibb – Nebraska

A Touch of Sin (China)
Blue is the Warmest Color (France)
Gloria (Chile)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)

Sean Bobbitt – 12 Years a Slave
Benoit Debie – Spring Breakers
Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis
Frank G. Demarco – All Is Lost
Matthias Grunsky – Computer Chess

The Act Of Killing
After Tiller
Gideon’s Army
The Square
Twenty Feet From Stardom

Computer Chess – Andrew Bujalski
Crystal Fairy – Sebastian Silva
Museum Hours – Jem Cohen
Pit Stop – Yen Tan
This Is Martin Bonner – Chad Hartigan

Shane Carruth & David Lowery – Upstream Color
Jem Cohen & Marc Vives – Museum Hours
Jennifer Lame – Frances Ha
Cindy Lee – Una Noche
Nat Sanders – Short Term 12

Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater – Before Midnight
Nicole Holofcener – Enough Said
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – The Spectacular Now
John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave

Lake Bell – In A World
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Don Jon
Bob Nelson – Nebraska
Jill Soloway – Afternoon Delight
Michael Starburry – The Inevitable Defeat Of Mister & Pete

Mud
Director: Jeff Nichols
Casting Director: Francine Maisler
Ensemble Cast: Joe Don Baker, Jacob Lofland, Matthew McConaughey, Ray McKinnon, Sarah Paulson, Michael Shannon, Sam Shepard, Tye Sheridan, Paul Sparks, Bonnie Sturdivant, Reese Witherspoon

Toby Halbrooks & James M. Johnson
Jacob Jaffke
Andrea Roa
Ferderick Thornton

Kalyanee Mam – A River Changes Course
Jason Osder – Let The Fire Burn
Stephanie Spray & Pancho Valez – Manakamana

Aaron Douglas Johnston – My Sister’s Quinceanera
Shaka King – Newlyweeds
Madeleine Olnek – The Foxy Merkins

It’s always felt like everyone’s been waiting for Woody Allen‘s legendary, ultra-prolific career to inevitably begin sputtering out. When he began really losing steam about a decade ago with duds like Curse of the Jade Scorpion and Melinda and Melinda, many speculated that his edge might be dulling for good. Then he knocked us in the head with the brilliant films like Match Point, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and Midnight in Paris which proved he was still capable of creating significant cinema.

From another angle, the infrequency of great films in Allen’s late period has been a signal to many that his days as a vital director may be over sooner rather than later. Is Blue Jasmine—a bitter character study starring Cate Blanchett as Jasmine, a Ruth Madoff-like wreck of a woman—substantial enough to quell the fears of his loyal supporters and prove he’s got more left in the tank? The short answer is yes, it is. Blanchett’s unbounded performance should easily earn her an Oscar nod and directorially, Allen is in tip-top shape. And yet, Blue Jasmine falls short of greatness, mostly due to strangely written and casted supporting players and a script that slightly buckles under the weight of Blanchett’s juggernaut performance.

The film opens with Jasmine, a once wealthy New York aristocrat, sitting on a plane, rattling off incessantly about how she met her husband, Hal (Alec Baldwin) to a stranger who becomes less interested with every word. “He met me at a party and swept me off my feet.” They’ve just landed in San Francisco (which Allen photographs as if it were a ghost town), where Jasmine’s forced to stay with her working class sister, Ginger (Sally Hawkins), since she’s lost “every cent” of her own money—Hal’s orchestration of a failed Ponzi scheme landed him in the slammer, leaving Jasmine drowned in debt. She tries to veil her snobby disgust for her sister’s modest digs, and numbs herself to her surroundings by chugging vodka.

Watching Jasmine plummet from the glamour, Chanel bags, and Hamptons house parties of her previous life (depicted artfully in carefully planted flashbacks) to downing bottles of Stoli, snacking on Xanax, and sleeping on a crummy couch bed, is deliciously tragic and straddles the line between hilarious and depressing. Jasmine is unbelievably self-centered, perpetually complaining about everything, but mostly about the titanic tragedy that is her life, even when no one’s around to hear it (disturbing.) Whenever she’s confronted with a serious dilemma, she mentally checks out and starts reciting her go-to anecdotes from the “Hal” days like a broken record. She repeats the story with a blank stare, “He met me at a party and swept me off my feet.” Shudder. Extreme neurosis and anxiety are eating her alive (Gena Rowlands in A Woman Under the Influence comes to mind.) Jasmine’s mental breakdown is both utterly gripping and distressing to watch, like a 20 million dollar jet crashing and burning in slow motion.

The supporting cast is almost comically un-Californian, with Andrew Dice Clay as Hawkins’ bitter ex husband (“She’s movin’ in wit’ yoo?”), Louis C.K. as her frivolous fling (wasted), and Bobby Cannavale playing a lame version of Stanley Kowalski. Speaking of A Streetcar Named Desire (which inspired Allen to make this film), Blanchett channels the tragic romanticism of Blanche DuBois, who she played on-stage in 2009. She never gets too showy, though, and only goes big-time operatic when she knows the scene will be better for it.

Though Allen opted to not endow Blue Jasmine with his travelogue visual flare that I’ve grown fond of, Blanchett provides so much to chew on and gawk at that she single-handedly makes the film a certifiably significant work. The humor never falters and there’s enough of it to balance out Jasmine’s surprisingly dark character arc, but I’d hesitate to classify this as a comedy (as it’s been advertised.) I would, however, classify it as proof that Allen’s still got years of great films left in him.