We are only 23 days away from hearing the winners of the 2012 Independent Spirit Awards so I thought I would give a shot at predictions who those winners will be. The Spirit Awards are a little be harder to predict than the Oscars because they do not tend to follow as many patterns nor does it have as wide of an audience. This year has a chance to be closer to the outcome of the Oscars than any other year with The Artist being the favorite at both shows. Christopher Plummer and A Separation also could be set to win both a Spirit Award and Oscar. In addition to picking the winners for each category I gave some insight as to why in the “Notes” section under the categories.

Tune in on Saturday February 25th to IFC and see how well I did (or did not do).

The full list of Independent Spirit Award predictions:
(My prediction for the winners are highlighted in bold red font)

50/50 – Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Ben Karlin
Beginners – Miranda de Pencier, Lars Knudsen, Leslie Urdang, Jay Van Hoy, Dean Vanech
Drive – Michel Litvak, John Palermo, Marc Platt, Gigi Pritzker, Adam Siegel
Take Shelter – Tyler Davidson, Sophia Lin
The Artist – Thomas Langmann, Emmanuel Montamat
The Descendants – Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

Mike Mills – Beginners
Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive
Jeff Nichols- Take Shelter
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Alexander Payne – The Descendants

Another Earth – Directed by Mike Cahill; Producers: Mike Cahill, Hunter Gray, Brit Marling, Nicholas Shumaker
In The Family – Directed by Patrick Wang; Producers: Robert Tonino, Andrew van den Houten, Patrick Wang
Margin Call – Directed by J.C. Chandor; Producers: Robert Ogden Barnum, Michael Benaroya, Neal Dodson, Joe Jenckes, Corey Moosa, Zachary Quinto
Martha Marcy May Marlene – Directed by Sean Durkin; Producers: Antonio Campos, Patrick Cunningham, Chris Maybach, Josh Mond
Natural Selection – Directed by Robbie Pickering; Producers: Brion Hambel, Paul Jensen

Demian Bichir – A Better Life
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Ryan Gosling – Drive
Woody Harrelson – Rampart
Michael Shannon – Take Shelter

Lauren Ambrose – Think Of Me
Rachel Harris – Natural Selection
Adepero Oduye – Pariah
Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn

Albert Brooks – Drive
John Hawkes – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
John C. Reilly – Cedar Rapids
Corey Stoll – Midnight In Paris

Jessica Chastain – Take Shelter
Angelica Huston – 50/50
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Harmony Santana – Gun Hill Road
Shaileen Woodley – The Descendants

Bellflower – Written and directed by Evan Glodell; Producers: Evan Glodell, Vincent Grashaw
Circumstance – Written and directed by Maryam Keshavarz; Producers: Karin Chien, Maryam Keshavarz, Melissa M. Lee
Hello Lonesome – Written and directed and produced by Adam Reid
Lovers of Hate – Written and directed by Dee Rees; Producer: Nekisa Cooper
The Dynamiter – Writters: Matthew Gordon and Brad Ingelsby; Directed by Matthew Gordon; Producers: Kevin Abrams, Matthew Gordon, Merilee Holt, Nate Tuck, Amile Wilson

An African Election – Jarreth J. Merz, Kevin Merz
Bill Cunningham New York – Richard Press
The Interrupters – Steve James
The Redemption of General Butt Naked – Daniele Anastasion, Eric Strauss
We Were Here – David Weissman, Bill Weber

A Separation – Asghar Farhadi
Melancholia – Lars von Trier
Shame – Steve McQueen
The Kid With A Bike – Jean-Pierre Dardenne, Luc Dardenne
Tyrannosaur – Paddy Considine

Joel Hodge – Bellflower
Benjamin Kasulke – The Off Hours
Darius Khondji – Midnight In Paris
Guillaume Schiffman – The Artist
Jeffrey Waldron – The Dynamiter

Joseph Cedar – Footnote
Michel Hazanivicius – The Artist
Tom McCarthy – Win Win
Mike Mills – Beginners
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash – The Descendants

Mike Cahill & Brit Marling – Another Earth
J.C. Chandor – Margin Call
Patreck DeWitt – Terri
Phil Johnston – Cedar Rapids
Will Reiser – 50/50

Ricky Gervais returned as the host for the 69th Golden Globe Awards offending attendees with a beer just as he did last year. Although, this year he was a little more tame with his jokes, he proved he was worthy of being a repeating host.

As expected The Artist ended up with the most wins with three (including Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical and Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical). But The Descendants was a close second with two big wins (Best Motion Picture — Drama and Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama).

On the TV side of the awards no one show dominated and there were some surprises, namely Kelsey Grammer winning as Best Actor in a Drama and Matt LeBlanc getting a win for Best Actor in a Comedy. Game Of Thrones, Modern Family and American Horror Story each walked out with a win while Boardwalk Empire and Breaking Bad sadly going home empty handed.

The full list of Golden Globe film winners:
(The winners are highlighted in bold red font)

Best Motion Picture – Drama:
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical:
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn

Best Director:
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
George Clooney – The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Martin Scorsese – Hugo

Best Actress – Drama:
Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis – The Help
Rooney Mara – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Actor – Drama:
George Clooney – The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Ryan Gosling – The Ides of March
Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical:
Jodie Foster – Carnage
Charlize Theron – Young Adult
Kristen Wiig – Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet – Carnage

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical:
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Brendan Gleeson – The Guard
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – 50/50
Ryan Gosling – Crazy, Stupid, Love
Owen Wilson – Midnight In Paris

Best Supporting Actress:
Berenice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Shailene Woodley – The Descendants

Best Supporting Actor:
Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks – Drive
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Foreign Language Film:
The Flowers of War (China)
In the Land of Blood and Honey (USA)
The Kid With a Bike (Belgium)
A Separation (Iran)
The Skin I Live In (Spain)

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture:
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon – The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash – The Descendants
Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin – Moneyball

Best Original Score – Motion Picture:
Ludovic Bource – The Artist
Abel Korzeniowski – W.E.
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Howard Shore – Hugo
John Williams – War Horse

Best Animated Feature Film:
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Best Original Song – Motion Picture:
Hello Hello – Gnomeo & Juliet, music by Elton John, lyrics by Bernie Taupin
The Keeper – Machine Gun Preacher, music and lyrics by Chris Cornell
Lay Your Head Down – Albert Nobbs, music by Brian Byrne, lyrics by Glenn Close
The Living Proof – The Help, music by Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman, Harvey Mason Jr.; lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr., Damon Thomas
Masterpiece – W.E., music and lyrics by Madonna, Julie Frost, Jimmy Harry

Cecil B. DeMille Award:
Morgan Freeman

The full list of Golden Globe television winners:

Best Drama Series:
American Horror Story
Boardwalk Empire
Boss
Game of Thrones
Homeland

Best Comedy Or Musical:
Enlightened
Episodes
Glee
Modern Family
New Girl

Best TV Movie/Miniseries:
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
The Hour
Mildred Pierce
Too Big to Fail

Best Actress – Drama:
Claire Danes – Homeland
Mireille Enos – The Killing
Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife
Madeleine Stowe – Revenge
Callie Thorne – Necessary Roughness

Best Actor – Drama:
Steve Buscemi – Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad
Kelsey Grammer – Boss
Jeremy Irons – The Borgias
Damian Lewis – Homeland

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical:
Laura Dern – Enlightened
Zooey Deschanel – New Girl
Tina Fey – 30 Rock
Laura Linney – The Big C
Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical:
Hugh Bonneville – Downtown Abbey
Idris Elba – Luther
William Hurt – Too Big to Fail
Bill Nighy – Page Eight
Dominic West – The Hour

Best Actress – TV Movie/Miniseries:
Romola Garai – The Hour
Diane Lane – Cinema Verite
Elizabeth McGovern – Downton Abbey
Emily Watson – Appropriate Adult
Kate Winslet – Mildred Pierce

Best Actor – TV Movie/Miniseries:
Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock
David Duchovny – Californication
Johnny Galecki – The Big Bang Theory
Thomas Jane – Hung
Matt LeBlanc – Episodes

Best Supporting Actress – TV Series:
Jessica Lange – American Horror Story
Kelly MacDonald – Boardwalk Empire
Maggie Smith – Downtown Abbey
Sofia Vergara – Modern Family
Evan Rachel Wood – Mildred Pierce

Best Supporting Actor – TV Series:
Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
Paul Giamatti – Too Big to Fail
Guy Pearce – Mildred Pierce
Tim Robbins – Cinema Verite
Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family

Beginners is a semi-autobiographical film written and directed by Mike Mills about how to find love in relationships. It is also about how much ones upbringing influences their lives as an adult. A young man must deal with his father recently being diagnosed with cancer and come to terms that his 75 year old father is just now coming out-of-the-closet.

Oliver Fields (Ewan McGregor) is a graphic designer whose parents were married for 44 years before his mother passed away. At the time of his mother’s death his father Hal (Christopher Plummer) announced that he was gay. Hal confessed that he has been gay since he was thirteen but when Oliver’s mother asked him to marry him he said yes. Oliver accepts his father’s confession just fine but has a harder time accepting that his parents had a loveless marriage for so long.

Oliver is sad and lonely when he finds out that his father now has cancer so he seeks out companionship from his dog. His luck is about to change when he attends a costume party and meets a girl. Even though he was trying to put on a happy face for the party she could tell that he was sad behind the costume. The two connected immediately despite the fact she has laryngitis which prevented her from being able to speak that night, forcing her to write down her words to him.

The girl he met is Anna (Mélanie Laurent), a French actress who happened to be passing through town. Because she is an actress she has learned to read people very well, which is likely the reason why the two hit it off so strongly. Oliver has a history of failed relationships but he is hoping this one will be different.

Beginners frequently flashes back to his childhood with interactions with his mother. Through these flashbacks you understand why he acts they way he does. Oliver experiences similar situations as a child as he does as an adult. One example is as a child his mother would pretend to shoot him and he would act dead, Anna also pretends to shoot him as well. These are subtle correlations but they explain his personality and influences of his upbringing.

In Oliver’s mind, he is always comparing the present to his past. Such as whom the president was when his father was born and who it is now. Because his profession is drawing he remembers the small details in people. He remembers what Anna’s face looks like when she is happy or what it is like when she is crying. He can recall exactly what her eyes, feet and ears look like.

Ewan McGregor had the head role but his character is not the most memorable, to no fault of his own. Mélanie Laurent kept reminding me of a French Penelope Cruz; she was witty, seductive and genuine. But the standout performance in Beginners goes to Christopher Plummer. He did an amazing job playing the man with a delightful outlook on a new lifestyle while he approached death from battling cancer.

The performances from the cast in Beginners outshine the story itself. The storyline is sluggish, not because of the non-linear structure or the lack of an antagonist but from the lack of depth. I still found myself rooting for the characters even though ultimately the story falls short. Because it if there is one thing Beginners has, it is character.

The 2012 Film Independent Spirit Award nominations were announced today by presenters Anthony Mackie and Kate Beckinsale kicking off the award season. Of the total 277 total film submissions The Artist and Take Shelter raked in the most nominations this year with five in total. Close behind them with 4 nominations were films Martha Marcy May Marlene, The Descendants, and Drive. I would say the front-runner for awards this year is The Artist but all of the films above will have a shot of being represented here as well as at the Oscars.

Michelle Williams gets her second nomination Best Female Lead nomination in a row with her role in My Week With Marilyn (last year’s nomination was for Blue Valentine). She was not the one to get a repeat nomination for the second year in a row as John Hawkes also received a nomination for Martha Marcy May Marlene for Best Supporting Male (John Hawkes won the award last year for Winter’s Bone).

In order to qualify for Spirit Awards a film has to be made for under $20 million, which would explain the absence of Tree Of Life among the nominations, which is a little disappointing as it has been my favorite film of 2011 so far (I still have a fair amount to see still though). Although I have not seen them yet, I am a little disappointed that Alps and The Skin I Live In did not make the cut for a nomination in the Best Foreign Film category (need to have at least 1 U.S. producer to qualify for the other awards).

The winners will be announced at the 27th annual Film Independent Spirit Awards on February 25th and the broadcast will air at 10 p.m. ET/PT on IFC.

50/50 – Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Ben Karlin
Beginners – Miranda de Pencier, Lars Knudsen, Leslie Urdang, Jay Van Hoy, Dean Vanech
Drive – Michel Litvak, John Palermo, Marc Platt, Gigi Pritzker, Adam Siegel
Take Shelter – Tyler Davidson, Sophia Lin
The Artist – Thomas Langmann, Emmanuel Montamat
The Descendants – Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

Mike Mills – Beginners
Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive
Jeff Nichols – Take Shelter
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Alexander Payne – The Descendants

Another Earth – Directed by Mike Cahill; Producers: Mike Cahill, Hunter Gray, Brit Marling, Nicholas Shumaker
In The Family – Directed by Patrick Wang; Producers: Robert Tonino, Andrew van den Houten, Patrick Wang
Margin Call – Directed by J.C. Chandor; Producers: Robert Ogden Barnum, Michael Benaroya, Neal Dodson, Joe Jenckes, Corey Moosa, Zachary Quinto
Martha Marcy May Marlene – Directed by Sean Durkin; Producers: Antonio Campos, Patrick Cunningham, Chris Maybach, Josh Mond
Natural Selection – Directed by Robbie Pickering; Producers: Brion Hambel, Paul Jensen

Demian Bichir – A Better Life
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Ryan Gosling – Drive
Woody Harrelson – Rampart
Michael Shannon – Take Shelter

Lauren Ambrose – Think Of Me
Rachel Harris – Natural Selection
Adepero Oduye – Pariah
Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn

Albert Brooks – Drive
John Hawkes – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
John C. Reilly – Cedar Rapids
Corey Stoll – Midnight In Paris

Jessica Chastain – Take Shelter
Angelica Huston – 50/50
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Harmony Santana – Gun Hill Road
Shaileen Woodley – The Descendants

Bellflower – Written and directed by Evan Glodell; Producers: Evan Glodell, Vincent Grashaw
Circumstance – Written and directed by Maryam Keshavarz; Producers: Karin Chien, Maryam Keshavarz, Melissa M. Lee
Hello Lonesome – Written and directed and produced by Adam Reid
Lovers of Hate – Written and directed by Dee Rees; Producer: Nekisa Cooper
The Dynamiter – Writters: Matthew Gordon and Brad Ingelsby; Directed by Matthew Gordon; Producers: Kevin Abrams, Matthew Gordon, Merilee Holt, Nate Tuck, Amile Wilson

An African Election – Jarreth J. Merz, Kevin Merz
Bill Cunningham New York – Richard Press
The Interrupters – Steve James
The Redemption of General Butt Naked – Daniele Anastasion, Eric Strauss
We Were Here – David Weissman, Bill Weber

A Separation – Asghar Farhadi
Melancholia – Lars von Trier
Shame – Steve McQueen
The Kid With A Bike – Jean-Pierre Dardenne, Luc Dardenne
Tyrannosaur – Paddy Considine

Joel Hodge – Bellflower
Benjamin Kasulke – The Off Hours
Darius Khondji – Midnight In Paris
Guillaume Schiffman – The Artist
Jeffrey Waldron – The Dynamiter

Joseph Cedar – Footnote
Michel Hazanivicius – The Artist
Tom McCarthy – Win Win
Mike Mills – Beginners
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash – The Descendants

Mike Cahill & Brit Marling – Another Earth
J.C. Chandor – Margin Call
Patreck DeWitt – Terri
Phil Johnston – Cedar Rapids
Will Reiser – 50/50

Margin Call
Director: J.C. Chandor
Ensemble Cast: Kevin Spacey, Paul Bettany, Jeremy Irons, Zachary Quinto, Penn Badgley, Simon Baker, Mary McDonnell, Demi Moore

Chad Burris – Mosquita y Mari
Sophia Lin – Take Shelter
Josh Mond – Martha Marcy May Marlene

Heather Courtney – Where Soldiers Come From
Danfung Dennis – Hell and Back Again
Alma Har’El – Bombay Beach

Simon Arthur – Silver Tongues
Mark Jackson – Without
Nicholas Ozeki – Mamitas